In another troubling sign for the ongoing staffing shortages facing the long-term care industry, a new report finds that US workforce participation among the prime working age population is continuing to decline.
The new research report, from the Employee Benefit Research Institute, finds that the prime working population of those aged 25 to 64 has significantly fallen since the mid-1990s and that the gap in the labor force increasingly is being filled with older workers. The report is not exclusive to the long-term care industry.
The decrease among the prime working population has come “despite the labor force participation rates of individuals of these ages remaining near mid-1990s levels,” the authors said. The decline is being driven by the smaller share of younger workers in the overall labor workforce.
“So far, the older population has been filling the gap in the labor force, as those younger than age 25 are at near record-low levels for their share of the labor force,” the report added. At the same time, the report finds that labor workforce participation among those 65 and older has still not reached pre-pandemic levels.
The report confirms the growing fears of nursing homes and assisted living communities, which already are facing severe staffing shortages. Nursing homes, for instance, lost more than 200,000 employees during the COVID-19 pandemic, and most nursing home providers are facing moderate to severe staffing shortages, according to a 2022 survey conducted by the American Health Care Association. Assisted living providers also faced staffing challenges during the pandemic and continue to do so, according to the National Center for Assisted Living.
Although the long-term industry has seen some improvement in filling positions in the past year, the workforce still has not recovered to pre-pandemic levels, according to industry leaders.
And despite the aging workforce, significantly fewer nursing homes are operating than there were before the pandemic. According to a report released last week by AHCA, almost 800 nursing homes closed between February 2020 and July 2024, displacing more than 28,000 residents.
AHCA/NCAL spokesperson Rachel Reeves told the McKnight’s Business Daily that the EBRI report “further supports the concerns we have with the federal staffing mandate, both today and in the future. As the baby boomer generation ages, more long-term care workers will be needed to meet the increasing demand for skilled nursing care — but the workers won’t exist.”
Although the federal staffing mandate applies directly only to nursing homes, AHCA/NCAL and other industry groups are concerned about its potential effects on providers in other areas of the long-term care continuum, given that providers recruit workers from the same pool of applicants.
“We’re already experiencing a historic workforce shortage that will only worsen without meaningful government support,” Reeves said. “Our nation’s policymakers must find a better way to address this situation by investing in workforce development efforts for the sector and other 21st-century solutions, or else our nation’s seniors will have fewer care options. We know access to care is already being squeezed, and with a growing elderly population, there isn’t a moment to waste.”
The authors of the EBRI report expect the trend of decreased workforce participation to continue as baby boomers retire or approach retirement, and as the population growth of younger-aged workers slows. The oldest boomers are turning 78 this year, whereas the youngest ones are turning 60, still five years away from being eligible for Medicare and seven years away from being able to collect their full Social Security benefits.
“The age of the labor force will play an important role in companies’ workforce development. At present, the aging of the Baby Boom generation has resulted in an increased share of older individuals in the labor force,” the report authors said. “However, members of this generation are almost all at least in their 60s, and the next generation (Gen X) is much smaller, so a decrease in the share of workers ages 55 or older is imminent,” they added. “How quickly this outcome results will be determined by whether the Baby Boom generation has continual higher labor force participation rates at ages over 65 than what has occurred in the past.”
