Senior living development activity is anticipated to ramp up in a “meaningful” way in 2025, according to a new poll of architectural firms active in the sector.
The National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care queried 32 architectural firms in early September to gain feedback and insights into planning underway within the senior living sector. Firms were asked about current levels of design and consulting activity, as well as predictions for future growth.
Most architectural firms responding predicted notable increases in 2025 for design and growth activities within senior living. Fifty percent of respondents predicted that not-for-profit activity would pick up in the second half of 2025, compared with 37% who said activity would pick up in the first half of 2025. On the for-profit side, 40% of respondents anticipated that senior living development activity would pick up in the first half of 2025, whereas 27% said it would occur in the second half of the year.
Some said it would be 2026 before the sector sees meaningful movement in development activity — 7% said it would be 2026 before development is seen on the not-for-profit side, and 23% said it would be 2026 before development increases on the for-profit side.
Most respondents (91%) reported being active in continuing care retirement / life plan communities or independent living, assisted living and memory care communities, followed by freestanding assisted living/memory care communities (81%), active adult communities (75%) and nursing homes (56%).
NIC MAP Vision data show that for-profit growth activity has outpaced not-for-profit development activity for several years. In this survey, 47% of respondents reported a reduced level of for-profit activity compared with one year ago, whereas 30% indicated that they were somewhat more active than a year ago.
On the not-for-profit side, 14% of respondents reported a reduced level of activity compared with one year ago, whereas 45% reported that they were somewhat more active in the space now, and 14% said they were significantly more active than one year ago.
The largest proportion of projects architectural firms are involved in are full, design and build-outs (41% on the not-for-profit side and 46% among for-profits), followed by master planning activities (37% for not-for-profits and 21% for for-profits).
A larger portion of for-profit work was devoted to new community development, whereas the not-for-profit organizations reported being more active in expansions or community reinvestments/repositionings.
Observations by architectural firm respondents revealed that many owners/operators are thinking about growth, but most are taking a wait-and-see approach for more favorable interest rates before moving forward. They also noted a renewed interest in master planning for repositioning and expanding existing communities to meet pent-up demand, as well as limited solutions for the middle market and intergenerational projects.
