In one of the “strangest” political years ever, the dust is finally settling and a presidential race is setting up, according to one expert who looked at how the elections could have a significant impact on public policy issues affecting the senior living industry.
During Wednesday’s Argentum Advocates public policy call, Christian Morgan, managing principal of Husch Blackwell Strategies, a lobbying and government affairs consulting firm, outlined key battleground states and how candidates Vice President Kamala Harris (D) and running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, as well as Donald Trump (R) and running mate US Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, would need to win certain states to claim victory and a path to 270 electoral votes.
The bottom line, Morgan said, is that a combination of a larger range of states will determine the outcome of the November presidential election.
“It’s going to be a razor thin margin for whoever wins,” Morgan said, adding that the 1.8 million (6%) of undecided voters in seven battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — potentially will decide the race. “It’s truly astounding.”
Policy priorities
Looking at the policy platforms released by both candidates, Argentum Director of Government Relations Dan Samson said that both sides call for a shifting of resources into home care services.
The Trump-Vance platform calls for shifting resources to at-home senior care, removing perceived disincentives leading to caregivers shortages and supporting unpaid family caregivers through tax credits and the reduction of perceived red tape, Samson said.
The Harris-Walz platform, meanwhile, has a more extensive platform, he said. Samson added, however, that the platform includes less information specifically targeting long-term care and older adult issues. The platform calls for expanding the long-term care and home care workforces and also calls for expanding legal immigration and reforming the asylum system, he said.
Vance has held public office for less than two years, so not much is known about where he might stand on policy priorities of importance to the senior living industry, Samson said. On the other hand, he added, Walz, who is in his second term as Minnesota’s governor, has signed legislation requiring minimum staffing and training requirements for assisted living communities. Walz also signed legislation recognizing assisted living workers as frontline workers eligible to receive special bonus payments from the state for their work during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Argentum’s priorities that could be affected by election outcomes include a pilot program that would provide some veterans with access to assisted living; the Care Across Generation Act, which would facilitate the operating of child care programs in assisted living communities; and the Safeguarding Elderly Needs through Innovation & Occupational Resources, or SENIOR, Act, meant to make assisted living more affordable and provide workforce training programs.
The association also is looking at new congressional priorities that could be affected by certain congressional races, including private equity and transparency in healthcare, the influence of media reporting on the long-term care sector, the use of foreign-born workers and immigration policies.
“The margins of power are going to be interesting to watch, to see just how big of a mandate for governing that each chamber will need to pass legislation, to be able to do a lot of the work of Congress,” Samson said. “A majority doesn’t necessarily mean a governing majority.”
Morgan said the next three weeks will be “pivotal” in both the presidential and congressional races.
