Senior living and care executives are expressing optimism that returns to pre-pandemic occupancy levels are close, according to results from the latest survey from the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care.
Wave 49 of the survey of executives, which tracked responses from 48 senior housing and skilled nursing operators between Dec. 12, 2022, and Jan. 15, 2023, revealed that most expected occupancy to return in the first half of 2023.
“Independent living (52%) and memory care (53%) operators were the most optimistic respondents, with more than half anticipating their organization’s occupancy levels would return to pre-pandemic levels within the next six months,” Ryan Brooks, NIC senior principal, wrote in a blog post.
Despite that optimism, a small portion of operators — 3% each of assisted living and memory care participants, along with one-fifth of skilled nursing care respondents — said that they anticipate that it will take until 2025 or later before occupancy returns to pre-pandemic levels.
Looking at the near term, the number of assisted living (33%) and memory care (32%) participants reporting an acceleration in the pace of move-ins in the past 30 days fell for the fourth consecutive survey wave. Assisted living has seen a steady decline in operators reporting an acceleration in the pace of move-ins, down from a high of 62% in Wave 39 in March 2022.
Staffing remains a challenge
In terms of challenges facing operators, staffing remains at the top of the list for 85% of operators, with 92% of respondents reportedly experiencing staffing shortages. Fifty-seven percent of participants said they anticipate that those staffing challenges will improve in the second half the year.
Among those operators reporting tapping agencies to supplement existing staff members, 42% cited nurse aides as the most common need, followed by nurses (34%). Food service workers (14%) and plant operations (7%) also drove agency use.
Employee retention is becoming increasingly challenging, according to respondents. On average, 25% of organizations kept more than 80% of new staff members on the job after one month. This is down from Wave 45 in August/September 2022, when 29% of operators reported keeping an 80% retention rate of new workers after one month, and down again from Wave 39 in March 2022, when 46% of operators reported more than 80% retention after one month.
Longer-term retention rates were even lower, with just 5% of organizations reporting retaining more than 80% of new staff members after one year. This is down from Wave 45, when 12% of organizations reported retaining more than 80% of new staff at the one-year mark.
Other challenges reported by survey-takers were rising operating expenses (77%), staff turnover (69%) and low occupancy rates (40%).
Despite those challenges, 67% of participants said they expect agency use to decrease within the next six months, whereas 31% said that they expect usage rates to remain steady.
