As the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations is increasing nationwide, a new study finds home healthcare agencies could feel repercussions from the pandemic longer than they might have expected.

Kaiser Family Foundation searched data from the Epic Health Research Network and found hospital admissions for non-COVID illnesses in early April were 80% of what would be expected based on historic patterns. It cited several possible reasons for the continued downturn in admissions, including a shortage of healthcare providers due to the pandemic and patients delaying procedures for economic reasons. Kaiser speculated some of the missed or delayed care might not ever be delivered.

That could be a concern for home healthcare companies that benefit from patients in need of home therapy following elective surgery. Encompass CEO Mark Tarr said during a UBS Global Healthcare Conference in May that the company hoped elective procedures would be back to pre-pandemic levels by the end of this year.

At the beginning of the pandemic, surgeons began postponing and eliminating elective surgeries based on recommendations from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  A 2020 study by the Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery estimated a million orthopedic procedures were postponed last year alone, creating a backlog that would stretch at least two years if and when they restarted.

The Kaiser study also found that spending on healthcare services is about 7% less than last year and is about even with 2019 levels.