Talk about an October surprise. On Tuesday, Vice President Kamala Harris laid out a proposal that would expand Medicare coverage to include home care services.
For the senior living field, such a shift would have the potential to be a real game changer — though whether the game would improve or decline remains an open question.
On the bright side, it could lead to more appropriate care, allowing those in need to receive personalized assistance in the comfort of their homes. For senior living operators, this could spark new partnerships with home care agencies, creating a seamless continuum of care that better meets the needs of our aging population.
Let’s not put on rose-colored glasses just yet, however. The flip side of this proposal could leave more than a few operators wondering what it all means for their bottom line. With Medicare-funded home care now an option, we might see a decline in occupancy rates at senior living communities. Many lower-needs residents — those who might have chosen to move into a senior living community — might instead opt to remain at home.
And fewer heads in beds translates to a thinner income stream. I hardly need to explain why that is not a good thing.
But before you get pumped or reach for the Xanax, take a deep breath. Medicare-covered home care is not a done deal. Far from it.
Nothing along those lines will get kick started if Harris is not elected president. Last time I checked, that was roughly a 50-50 proposition.
Moreover, there’s that other little matter of Congress approving and funding this unprecedented expansion to the Medicare program. It’s looking like the Republicans will control one chamber of Congress after the election, possibly both. So even if Harris is elected president, the odds of GOP support for her agenda are pretty low.
Then there’s the matter of whose ox is getting gored. As proposed, drug manufacturers would be on the hook for the most of the $40 billion-plus estimated cost of this new benefit. According to Harris, this would happen through expanded drug price negotiation.
Does anyone really think that one of the most powerful lobbies in Washington is going to hand over that kind of money without going all medieval? Me neither.
So it can be said with some certainty that this proposal will not be happening any time soon. That delay will give senior living operators time to think about what might have been, either way.
John O’Connor is editorial director for McKnight’s Senior Living and its sister media brands, McKnight’s Long-Term Care News, which focuses on skilled nursing, and McKnight’s Home Care. Read more of his columns here.
